#VieauxPoint: Could Prediction Markets Predict Mortgage Rates?
Mortgage professionals tend to watch the same handful of indicators when thinking about rate movement. The 10-year Treasury. Mortgage-backed securities. Inflation data. Fed commentary. But another signal may be quietly emerging in the background: prediction markets. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket allow participants to trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes. Instead of buying a stock or bond, traders buy contracts tied to questions like: Will the Federal Reserve raise rates at the…