#VieauxPoint: Could Prediction Markets Predict Mortgage Rates?

Mortgage professionals tend to watch the same handful of indicators when thinking about rate movement. The 10-year Treasury. Mortgage-backed securities. Inflation data. Fed commentary. But another signal may be quietly emerging in the background: prediction markets. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket allow participants to trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes. Instead of buying a stock or bond, traders buy contracts tied to questions like: Will the Federal Reserve raise rates at the…

Discipline Builds Institutions: A Conversation on Strategy

For most of Pennymac’s journey, we’ve been organic builders. In an industry where scale is often purchased rather than constructed, we have chosen to grow deliberately by building our platform, our team, and our technology from the ground up. That purposeful foundation is what has allowed us to thrive through every market cycle. Our founding philosophy was straightforward. When you buy a company, you inherit its legacy systems, embedded costs, and cultural assumptions. But when you build, you…

Mar. 9: Non-QM, default support, DSCR products; in-person events; Which lenders are refinancing; Rocket’s Austin Niemiec interview on Compass

One of the conversation topics late last week in Deer Valley is the weather and climate, and more specifically that Salt Lake City had received virtually no snow this winter, which means that places like Atlanta and Charlotte have received more snow than a city at 4,300 feet elevation. Syracuse, New York has received nearly 5 feet of snow so far this year. Ever heard of Commonspace in Syracuse? As another affordable alternative, it’s a “cohousing” community in a restored 19 th century…

Mar. 7: Economic topics & trends impacting rates and borrower psychology; Compliance & regulatory snacks; AI thoughts

Talk about inflation… what’s a tooth going for these days? (No, I’m not so old that I received a beaver pelt when I lost a front tooth as a kid.) New findings from the Delta Dental 2026 Original Tooth Fairy Poll® revealed the average value of a single lost tooth during the past year increased by 17 percent from $5.01 to $5.84. This marks the first year-over-year increase in Tooth Fairy giving since 2023, ending a two-year decline . The price of oil is crazy, benefitting Russian companies…

Mar. 6: Reporting coordinator, LO jobs; Partnerships, teams sought; verification tool; company & training webinars; oil-driven inflation

They’re finally receiving some snow here in Deer Valley, Utah. Officially winter ends on 3/19, as the Spring Equinox is 3/20. Most modern clocks these days auto-update when daylight savings begins/ends. So, Sunday morning I’ll be walking around my house thinking, “Wow… times have changed.” This Sunday many places will be changing their clocks and springing ahead. This will, once again, lead to the public asking politicians to do away with changing clocks, with stories of bad traffic and…

AI Surfaces Opportunities, Trust Converts Them

Mortgage servicing has evolved over the last few years. What used to feel like a purely operational, almost defensive function has taken on a new identity. When origination volumes fell, MSRs were suddenly more than a predictable stream of cash flow; they became one of the few reliable paths to revenue and growth. That shift has fueled investment in predictive analytics, intent data, and AI tools designed to spot borrowers who might refinance, move, or tap equity. These tools are getting…

Mar. 5: LO jobs; wholesale, best ex, verification tools; cybersecurity news & the Figure incident; oil prices hit interest rates

“What is Forrest Gump’s password? 1forrest1.” Cybersecurity is no laughing matter (nor perhaps was that opener), and here in Park City, at the annual mortgage ski trip , some of the banter is social, and some is focused on business. On the business side of things, one topic is the nearly 1 million people impacted by hackers attacking Figure Technology Solutions , a blockchain-focused fintech lender. U.S. financial institutions are increasing cybersecurity vigilance amid the escalating war…

Mar. 4: Engineer job; AOT execution, CRM, advisory, virtual economist, non-QM tools; Redwood’s first non-QM deal

Years ago, I commented that, “March 4 th is the only day that is a command.” It didn’t take long for someone to rejoin, “Every day in March can be a command.” It isn’t a topic that is mentioned often, versus… credit. Credit is certainly a topic as of late, both its process and its cost, but I received this note from an industry vet in the South. “Rob, I’m tired of lenders having ‘a come apart’ over FICO’s costs. No one talks about the fact that FICO held its prices steady for over 20 years,…

Mar. 3: Commercial for LOs, HELOC, AI/compliance, eNote products; skiing & AI events/training; rates initially rise on war news

At the L1 Summit, technology is obviously a key segment of many sessions. Tech is helping larger companies in their moves in controlling the borrower funnel. Artificial intelligence (AI) with its pros and cons but hoped-for benefits to productivity and therefore cost reduction, is a common conversation topic. Third party provider offerings are also theme. especially when it comes to technology and marketing. “Rob, I know that you have job ads in your Commentary, but we’re looking for a CRM…