Capital Markets Recap: November 21, 2025

MBS spreads widened modestly this week and volatility climbed to a one-month high, though still near multi-year lows. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities remained range-bound despite global risk-off sentiment driven by concerns around AI investment, valuations, and slowing growth. With the Fed signaling that future balance-sheet expansion (to combat reserves nearing scarcity) would be aimed at market functioning rather than stimulus, much hinges on next month’s FOMC meeting and its…

Market Update – Payroll Playbook

Our first official post-shutdown jobs number was delivered, and the market has spoken. The headline was 119k new jobs added in September, basically double what the market expected. However, not so fast. August was revised down to 6k, and the unemployment rate ticked still higher to 4.44%, the highest since October 2021. The first place we look is from the Fed vantage point. A stronger jobs headline does give them breathing room (even if unemployment ticked higher). The futures markets are…

Nov. 21: LO jobs; Hedging, broker database, distributed meeting AI ass’t tools; Experian on renter’s thoughts; Director Pulte a liability?

“Six cows were smoking joints and playing poker. That’s right: The steaks were pretty high.” The steaks, uh, stakes, are high when changes to our housing finance system occur, or actions are taken that are negatively impact borrowers or reputations. In a typical organization, the CEO reports to the board of directors. The FHFA oversees Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and with FHFA Director Bill Pulte, he pretty much appointed the boards of Freddie and Fannie but they are ultimately responsible…

Nov. 20: Servicing, default, remote office, verification tools; Pennymac CEO on servicing; IMB profit numbers; cash-strapped CFPB?

“Here we are, a week away from Thanksgiving, and I’m in Kansas City . My family told me to stop telling Thanksgiving jokes, but I said I couldn’t quit cold turkey.” The CFPB isn’t going away “cold turkey” but yesterday’s personnel move was a reminder that there are clever people in Washington DC. It was a follow up to Trump Administration court filings last week that said the CFPB was on track to run out of money to operate at the beginning of next year and argued that it was legally…

Voice of the Industry: David Spector (Part 3)

The Strategic Rise of Mortgage Servicing For decades, mortgage servicing sat quietly in the background…essential, yes, but rarely viewed as the heartbeat of mortgage banking. It was historically perceived as a post-closing administrative function: collect payments, manage escrow, and stay out of trouble. Today, that world is gone. Servicing has become one of the most strategically important assets in the mortgage ecosystem, a growth engine for originators, a competitive differentiator, and…

Nov. 19: IT sales, Home equity TPO jobs; QC report, relationship, mobile lock tools; Zillow & ChatGPT; PHH reverse mortgage sale to FAR

As I type these words, I am sitting in front of one of Chuck Berry’s early residences in St. Louis. STL has a good musical reputation, a fine mortgage association , a Fed that puts out great research, and has many nice neighborhoods. But to call this specific area where I am sitting a “transitional” neighborhood would be generous. Although there is potential, nearly every house standing could use an immense amount of work, and the residents probably aren’t regulars at home improvement…