Sep. 20, 2007: Mortgage chatter: two great websites for two very different reasons

Sep. 20, 2007: Mortgage chatter: two great websites for two very different reasons Rob Chrisman

I don’t know if this site says more about ex-wrestlers or about the attitude regarding some mortgage originators: http://www.ricflairfinance.com/

If any borrower asks you, “If the Fed dropped their rates by .50%, why didn’t mortgage rates drop?” this site may be a huge help to you. As you will see, although they trend together, there is no precise correlation: http://library.hsh.com/?row_id’

Yesterday was a little erratic mortgage rate-wise. Several banks lowered their Prime Rate by 50 basis points to 7.75%. The Mortgage Bankers Applications Survey showed last week’s apps +2.4% with purchases +0.9% and refinances +4.6%. Refinancing remains the most pressing issue with mortgage applicants. The Consumer Price Index was -0.1% with the core rate +0.2%.  Consumer prices in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in August for the first time this year, which should have helped us. Housing Starts were -2.6% & Building Permits -5.9%. Builders in the U.S. began work on the fewest homes in 12 years in August, raising the risk the real-estate recession will spread to other parts of the economy – also helping us. So what happened? The Treasury’s 10-Year Note “tanked”, worsening by the most in six weeks on fears of inflation. Why inflation? The thinking goes that the rate cuts on Tuesday will spur the economy, thus the stock market rally, and a stronger economy will push rates higher. “One and done” in terms of rate cuts?

So far we’re worse today, with the 10-yr yield up to 4.58%. One piece of relevant data scheduled for release today is the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for August. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months: increasing activity generally leading to higher rates, decreasing leading to lower rates. Current forecasts are calling for a range from “no change” from July’s +.4% reading to -.4%. We had weekly Unemployment Claims from the Labor Department, down 9k to 311k – the exact opposite of what was expected! The 4-week moving average is -3,500 – not indicative of a recession. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to increase by +2.6 point after seeing a -9.2 point decline in August. 

A good piece of chocolate has about 200 calories.  As I enjoy two servings per night, and a few more on weekends, I consume 3,500 calories of chocolate in a week, which equals one pound of weight per week.

Therefore…

In the last 3 1/2 years, I have had a chocolate caloric intake of about 185 pounds.  I weigh 185 pounds, so without chocolate, I would have wasted away to nothing about three months ago!

I owe my life to chocolate.