Nov. 2, 2007: Mortgages: don’t forget to turn your clocks back Sunday morning! Jobs, advertising, and some humor

Nov. 2, 2007: Mortgages: don’t forget to turn your clocks back Sunday morning! Jobs, advertising, and some humor Rob Chrisman

We had a nice improvement in mortgage pricing yesterday. Investors took money out of equities (DOW down 362) following continued credit concerns and the Citigroup downgrade (Citigroup was downgraded by three equity analysts due to the fact that increasing delinquencies on their mortgages assets could lead to a large write down in value on their balance sheet). Fed Fund futures were pricing in a 60% chance of further easing at December’s FOMC meeting, which is up from 42% on Wednesday, and 30-yr A-paper prices improved by .250 in price, although this morning we’ve given .125 back.

With the strong jobs number today, what now? Non-farm Payrolls, expected +80k, was +166k, basically double expectations. The Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 4.7%, Hourly Earnings were +.2%, and August and September had some minor revisions. The 10-yr went from 4.36% to 4.39%. Where did all the jobs come from? Retail and manufacturing were down, but the “service sector” added 190,000 new jobs during the month! Suddenly analysts are reducing the chance of another Fed ease at the next meeting, given the strong employment data, the logic being more people working more people making money more spending a stronger economy possible inflation and higher rates. The market will be looking to see how strong the labor market can remain amidst continued turmoil in the housing market and high energy costs, but strong job creation certainly does not suggest that we’re heading for a recession! Also on tap is September’s Factory Orders report, similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release except it includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is expected to show 1.0% rise in orders from August’s level.

Has your advertising changed since the mortgage market has changed? Maybe it should, although one study showed that, “Agents and brokers appear to be spending their advertising dollars mostly the same way and in the same forms of media as they did a year ago.” It seems that real estate professionals are not yet paying much attention to the return on investment they are getting from advertising. If you’re an agent or broker, your real job is selling, and tracking advertising effectiveness is just one tiny piece of that. 21% of respondents reported that they have their own blog and 25% said they participate in at least one social-networking site. About 86% of respondents reported that they have their own Web site or sites.

A federal court stopped the Department of Housing and Urban Development from enforcing a rule that prohibits seller-funded down-payment gifts on loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration. In a preliminary injunction, the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia told HUD to rescind a message it had sent lenders that only two down-payment assistance providers (Nehemiah and Ameridream) would be allowed to continue offering such gifts for the time being. HUD must notify lenders “that the regulation will not take effect as to any … provider until further order of this court,” the injunction said. The department has said that foreclosure and loss rates are higher on loans made with seller-funded down-payment gifts. Such loans made up a substantial share of the FHA’s volume in recent years. So for now, DPA’s are still approved for use with FHA Loans

Over the past year, homeownership has fallen by 0.8 percentage points, which implies that a net 900,000 households have moved from owner-occupied to rental accommodation. That’s a huge number, since the demographic demand for owner-occupied housing (i.e. the trend increase in the number of households multiplied by the homeownership rate) is only about 800,000. Some analysts believe that these numbers illustrate that falling homeownership could still push down housing starts substantially further, even from their seemingly depressed current levels.

In a trial, a Southern small-town prosecuting attorney called his first witness, a grand motherly, elderly woman to the stand. He approached her and asked, “Mrs. Jones, do you know me?” She responded, “Why, yes, I do know you, Mr. Williams. I’ve known you since you were a young boy, and frankly, you’ve been a big disappointment to me. You lie, you cheat on your wife, and you manipulate people and talk about them behind their backs. You think you’re a big shot when you haven’t the brains to realize you never will amount to anything more than a two-bit paper pusher. Yes, I know you.” The lawyer was stunned! Not knowing what else to do, he pointed across the room and asked, “Mrs. Jones, do you know the defense attorney?” She again replied, “Why, yes, I do. I’ve known Mr. Bradley since he was a youngster, too. He’s lazy, bigoted, and he has a drinking problem. He can’t build a normal relationship with anyone and his law practice is one of the worst in the entire state. Not to mention he cheated on his wife with three different women. One of them was your wife. Yes, I know him.” The defense attorney almost died.

The judge asked both counselors to approach the bench and, in a very quiet voice, said, “If either of you asks her if she knows me, I’ll take your licenses away.”