I am sure that residential mortgage servicers see checks every day in the mail, as do escrow companies. But in the day to day, no one wants to be in the store and have the person in line ahead of them pull out a check book and then scramble around for a pen. (Uni-ball gel with blue ink is good.) Those who feel that way will be pleased to know that the usage of checks has declined sharply in the United States… But people are still using them for big purchases. In 2000, there were 42.6 billion checks written, good for 150 checks per American, with a total value of $40.3 trillion, indicating a typical check being for an amount less than $1,000. By 2024, there were only 9.2 billion checks written, only about 27 checks per person on average, but the total value was still rather high at $24.5 trillion, indicating the average check was for about $2,600. There may be change on the horizon, as the Federal Reserve is considering leaving the check processing business, which presents a possible phase-out moment for checks.
Saturday Spotlight: Gershman Mortgage
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We recently caught up with Adam Mason, President of Gershman Mortgage, to hear about its more than 70-year history, what sets it apart and what’s driving the company’s next chapter.
In 3-5 sentences, describe your company (when was it founded and why, what it does, where, recent growth and plans for near-term future growth).
Gershman Mortgage was founded in St. Louis, MO, by Solon Gershman in 1955 to complement the real estate company he established a few years prior. More than 70 years later, Gershman Mortgage is one of the largest family-owned residential mortgage companies in the Midwest, licensed in 22 states with branches throughout the U.S. We also operate as a correspondent lender, partnering with banks and credit unions to expand access to mortgage solutions across its footprint, as well as a multifamily and healthcare facility lender nationwide. Looking ahead, we continue to grow through unwavering support of our employees, by attracting top producing loan officers, making smart investments in technology, and building relationships with real estate and referral partners across our markets.
What does your company do to help elevate your employees’ growth? Describe any mentoring programs, outside classes or training, in-house training. How does the company help people develop?
Gershman invests in our people through a culture of mentorship, dedicated support, commitment to ongoing professional development, and long history of promoting from within. Loan officers have access to dedicated sales training programs designed to sharpen skills, build pipelines, and support long-term production growth. Beyond formal training, we foster a culture where experienced professionals invest in those around them. The goal is never to create replicas of top producers but rather to share best practices and perspectives that each professional can adapt to their own style, market, and strengths.
Things you are most proud of that don’t have to do with sales.
Our culture and our employees. We support and help each other. We celebrate successes and are there for each other when times are tough. Our team has character, integrity, talent, drive, and is empathetic to our customers’ needs. We take the long view: no shortcuts, no compromises on ethics, no winning a deal at the expense of a relationship or a reputation. Building something that lasts requires doing things the right way, every time.
Fun fact about your company.
In over 70 years, Gershman has had only three presidents. Talk about stability!
Is there anything else you’d like to share along these lines?
Gershman is actively growing and intentionally so. We continue to expand our loan offerings, recently adding non-QM and medical professional loan programs to serve a broader range of borrowers. Our correspondent lending platform sets us apart in the market, and Gershman is seeking banks and credit unions to join our TPO program.
On the recruiting side, growth is deliberate. Gershman is not adding loan officers for the sake of numbers; it is looking for the right people. The right fit includes professionals who have built their businesses on relationships and results. Those who want an environment that adds power around what they’re already doing well, without asking them to be something they’re not, excel at Gershman.
(For more information on having your firm’s extracurricular activities, employee growth, and your charitable side featured, contact Chrisman LLC’s Anjelica Nixt.)
ATR and Immigration: lenders are caught in the middle
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Some will say that loan officers should not have “immigration official” added to their list of job duties. Garris Horn addressed the Ability-to-Repay and immigration status confusion that banking regulators issued guidance on recently. “The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) issued interagency guidance on July 13 directing banks and credit unions to sharpen how they underwrite and manage loans to borrowers who lack legal authorization to work in the United States. The guidance carries out Executive Order 14406, “Restoring Integrity to America’s Financial System,” which President Trump signed on May 19, 2026, and gave banking regulators 60 days to act on credit risk tied to this population. We previously wrote about the Executive Order here, and guidance from the CFPB here. (Read the full story from Mr. Garris here.)
While we’re on rules and regulations, the CFPB is publishing a new Request for Information (RFI) on July 9 that is almost entirely focused on potential changes to the TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure (TRID) rule. Richard Horn, the law firm’s Co-Managing Partner, led the original TRID final rule, and the consumer testing and design of the TRID disclosures, when he was at the CFPB. Richard Horn has drafted a new blog post summarizing the RFI and providing some of his thoughts.
Black, Mann & Graham, L.L.P. noted, “In the July 9, 2026, issue of the Federal Register (91 FR 42382 click here) the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (“CFPB”) issued a request for information from mortgage industry stakeholders related to potential regulatory changes. This request for information, which was issued pursuant to a March 13, 2026, Executive Order by the President of the United States (Executive Order 14393), seeks “information on industry and consumer burdens related to the integrated mortgage disclosures under the Truth in Lending Act (TILA) and Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (RESPA) (TILA–RESPA integrated disclosures or TRID), the right of rescission, and reverse mortgage disclosures.” (Here is the memo.)
What helps to move interest rates
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Mortgages in the United States don’t move in lockstep with the 30-year Treasury bond. But the same factors influence both, and right now the 30-year T-Bond is at a 19-year high yield. Investors demand more compensation for long-term risk. What should LOs know about investor mindsets?
Beyond rate expectations, which can move rates, a second force is pushing longer-term yields higher: term premiums, or extra yield investors require in order to hold a long-term bond rather than roll over short-term instruments. It compensates for the uncertainty inherent to locking up capital for a longer term (e.g., inflation, fiscal policy, economic growth, etc.) and whether the bond will be worth anything close to face value if sold before maturity.
Between 2010 and 2022, the average term premium was near zero and even went negative during three periods in that timeframe, suppressed by central bank asset purchases, low economic growth projections, and a below target inflation environment. That era is over. According to the St. Louis Fed, the 10-year term premium reached its highest level since 2011 at the start of 2025, surpassing 0.8 percent and averaging .55 percent since then but has now moved higher. The elevated term premium has been driven by hotter-than-expected inflation prints, stronger economic growth expectations, and increased debt supply.
Fiscal dominance and massive government borrowing are now a permanent fixture of the market landscape, requiring higher yields to attract buyers for the ever-increasing supply of Treasury debt.” Goldman Sachs echoed this view, with its chief economist noting that the U.S. deficit ratio ‘would need to be several percentage points lower than it is now in order to stabilize the increase in debt-to-GDP.’ This has pushed real yields higher and kept Treasuries cheaper than they’ve been in a decade.
But loan officers should know that inflation, growth, and deficits are partly to blame. Treasury yields, as well as MBS prices, also embed the market’s collective view on three structural forces: inflation, economic growth, and the U.S. government’s borrowing needs.
On inflation, despite the Fed’s progress since the 2022-2023 peak, core PCE remains well above the 2 percent target, and recent data have raised questions about whether further declines in inflation will be as quick and smooth as hoped. To preserve future purchasing power, investors who expect inflation to run at 2.5-3 percent over the next decade will demand at least that much in yield from a 10Y bond, keeping rates elevated regardless of what the Fed does overnight.
On economics, Charles Schwab’s 2026 fixed-income outlook noted that large and rising fiscal deficits (and the increasing Treasury issuance required to fund them) mean investors must be enticed into buying the long end of the market, putting upward pressure on yields. The Council on Foreign Relations also flagged that tariff-related uncertainty has added another layer of complexity, with the 10Y yield rising by 34bp in just seven days following the Liberation Day tariff announcements as the market recalibrated.
Stronger-than-expected economic activity compounds the macro-economic picture: controlling a robust or “hot” economy suggests the Fed may not need to cut rates and could even be forced to raise them to keep inflation in check, reinforcing the “higher for longer” dynamic at the long end. This week’s Fed meeting, and the vague, non-committal speech given by Fed Chair Warsh, didn’t help rates.
One final factor that is easy to overlook: the Treasury market is global, and the U.S. doesn’t set its own long rates in isolation. Foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, and global asset managers are among the largest buyers of U.S. Treasuries. The treasury market, including the 10-year, is essentially a global instrument subject to diverse investor demand far beyond any central bank’s control. If overall demand falls, rates rise regardless of what the Federal Open Market Committee does to the Fed Funds rate.
On that note, the Council on Foreign Relations highlighted that one of the longer-term risks to Treasury markets is “questionable foreign demand,” particularly if geopolitical tensions or trade policy changes alter the calculus for foreign holders of U.S. debt. Currency hedging costs also matter. When it becomes expensive for a Japanese or European investor to hedge their dollar exposure, U.S. Treasuries look less attractive, and yields must rise to compensate. When global investors are in risk-off mode and seeking safety, they often sell other investments and buy treasuries, that increased demand pushes yields lower. When they’re rotating out of treasuries and into equities or other assets (or when geopolitical friction lowers their appetite for U.S. debt), they sell, or buy fewer, treasuries and yields rise.
LOs may find it tough to explain to borrowers that the bond market is doing exactly what it’s designed to do: look past the present and price in the future. What will the economy do? Will investors want to buy U.S. securities given the budget deficit?
Here are five key takeaways worth keeping in mind for your next client conversation about rates. First, the Fed controls one rate, the market controls the rest: The overnight rate anchors the short end of the curve, while the 10Y reflects what the market thinks the Fed, inflation, and the economy will look like over the next decade. These are two very different conversations.
Fewer future cuts or raises mean higher or lower long-term yields today: Long-term yields don’t just reflect cuts or increases already made, but also what the market believes the Fed will do over a decade, and revised expectations have kept the long end elevated even as the short end falls.
The term premium has returned: Investors are demanding extra compensation to lock up money for 10 years given uncertainty around inflation, deficits, and long-term policy, a dynamic that pushes the 10-year higher independent of Fed action.
Inflation, growth, and deficits are structural anchors. Long term yields, like the 5-year and 10-year, which are what MBS track, can be thought of as a simultaneous vote on long-run inflation expectations, economic growth projections, and confidence (or lack thereof) in U.S. fiscal policy, all three of which are giving investors reason to demand higher yields.
Global investors move U.S. rates, too. Shifts in foreign demand, risk appetite, and hedging costs move U.S. long-term rates regardless of what the Fed does, another reason long-term yields on the 5- and 10-year treasuries don’t simply follow moves in domestic monetary policy.
Clients who understand why long-term rates behave the way they do are better equipped to make smarter financing decisions. And the AE or originator who can explain it clearly, succinctly, without jargon, and without alarm will earn a level of trust that goes well beyond the transaction at hand.
Why does Helen Keller hate porcupines?
They’re painful to look at.
Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. STRATMOR’s current blog is “Pricing That Can Help Borrowers.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.
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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2026 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)
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