9.17.26 Fed Decisioning; Mortgage Nerd Group’s Denise Donoghue on Broker Channel; Resilient Economic Data

Robbie Chrisman: Welcome to the Crisman Commentary, Daily Mortgage News Podcast. Live from Vancouver, Washington. I'm your host, Robbie Chrisman. Topics on today's episode include the Fed calming the markets, why August data is actually pointing to a notably resilient U.S. consumer, and my interview with Mortgage Nerd, Denise Donahue, on how top brokers are leveraging technology and deciding where to broker loans. Here, take a listen to a little preview. Matt Ishbia was a guest on this podcast last week. There's a lot of chatter in the news about UWM from a broker's perspective. How do you view all that? Because obviously you're you're deciding where you're brokering loans to and you're working in your best interest and the best interest of your clients. Denise Donahue: Well, they don't talk about the 10th lender in the world. You know, the ones that you see all over the news is the number one guy. You know, it no one's no one cares about number 10 or 15 or but when you've been number one for the last four years and they can they can talk about you, they're gonna talk about you. Um, I think it's something that I'm paying attention to. I I don't know all the chess moves behind the scenes. No one ever does when there's all that legality and lawsuits between people. I've been involved in that myself. So you never know the whole story, but I'm watching it. I'm watching the stock price, I'm watching the service in my AE, and until they give me a reason to jump ship right now, they're the easiest to do business with. Robbie Chrisman: So this week's podcasts are sponsored by First Close. First close helps lenders accelerate home equity originations with faster property decisioning, streamlined workflows, and a digital borrower experience from application to closing. First close is the only end-to-end digital HELOC and home equity loan solution built specifically for home equity lending. Learn more at firstclose.com. My girlfriend says I only have two faults. I don't listen and something else. I'm not sure. Communication matters. How many LOs wear a pin out in public that says business is great? So strangers will ask them what business they're in. Probably not many, but maybe it's worth a try to start a conversation. Speaking of conversations, on today's big picture, Chris Whalen will be having a conversation about the current market. And speaking of getting the word out, with business having slowed somewhat, many companies are looking at their technology, and Crisman Demo Day is today at 1 p.m. Eastern. It's a fine, cost-effective way, read-free, for lenders to see and hear the latest from eight companies focused on verification, point of sale, loan origination system, underwriting and decisioning, secondary marketing, customer experience, and recapture servicing, aka The Journey of the Borrower. It features 10-minute demos from TrueWork, Mortgage Flex, Encino, Gateless, Agile Trading Technologies, Trust Engine, First Close, and Milo. You can find the link to register on our website, CrispinCommentary.com, and to be featured in a future demo day, contact Chrisman COO, Jake Perkins. There's no charge for marketplace members. Switching gears slightly, the U.S. economy is driven by jobs and housing, so those stats are especially sought after by investors and economists. I mention this because the Mortgage Bankers Association Builder Application Survey data for August 2026 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased 5.5% from a year ago and decreased 6% from July. Increasing mortgage rates continue to put pressure on new home sales activity. Applications to purchase newly constructed homes declined in August for the fifth straight month, with the level of applications down to its lowest in 2026. And the Federal Open Market Committee's unanimous 25 basis point hike yesterday, resulting in a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, was anticipated. The more important takeaway is the Fed's willingness to continue tightening. Sixteen of eighteen policymakers now see at least one additional hike in 2026, with the median policy rate rising to 4.8%. The post-meeting statements, limited changes emphasized resilient domestic spending, strong productivity, and robust capital investment alongside inflation that remains elevated and potentially more persistent. Upper revisions to 2026, GDP at 2.3%, core PCE at 3.4%, headline PCE at 3.7%, and the long-run policy rate at 3.25%, the highest since 2016, combined with the removal of language, attributing inflation partly to supply shocks and energy, reinforce the higher-for-longer narrative. Even as rates are projected to stabilize in 2027 and ease modestly in 2028. The big question mark remains how much additional tightening is coming from the Fed. Following yesterday's Fed hike, agency mortgage backed securities and treasuries had a mixed session. Front-end securities such as arm-related assets underperformed while the long end remained relatively resilient as markets focused on the prospect of further tightening. With treasury yields already near local highs and much of the Fed's hawkish path priced in, the immediate market reaction was muted. However, the combination of stronger than expected retail sales, upwardly revised 2026 GDP and inflation forecasts, and a 4.8% median year-end Fed funds rate projection helps to set expectations for potentially one to two additional hikes. The October and December meetings, the distribution of Fed projections, and any indication of a higher neutral rate will be key for duration. Elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on housing and could keep longer-term borrowing costs high even as the tightening cycle nears its end. For today's interview, I wanted to welcome to the show Mortgage Nerd, Denise Donahue, to talk about how top brokers are leveraging technology and deciding where to broker loans. She's known as the mortgage nerd and is a top 1% broker who has consistently closed more than $100 million annually for many years. Gives her an interesting vantage point on the market. She's seeing in real time how changing rates, consumer behavior, and industry conditions actually translate at the point of origination. When we think about the production landscape today, what are you seeing in terms of trends? And I guess from my perspective, it seems like we're there's a huge proliferation in the non-agency space. That's certainly come about. And there's also a lot of demand for home equity products. I don't know if you work work with those as much as you do in the primary space, but from your perspective, what are you what are you seeing in terms of market trends, borrower demands, and desires? Denise Donahue: Right now, our our pool is largely still first-time home buyers and then also boomers, you know, that age bracket. Our number two is they're they're wanting to move closer to grandkids. And so I'm I'm based out of Dallas, Fort Worth, but that's still our biggest pool. And I would say third would be our first-time sellers. And so the really the loan product that we're seeing a lot of in that space is, of course, the buy now and sell after. And a lot of people call those the bridge loans. I don't like calling them bridge loans because people have a different perception of what a bridge loan is, or they heard it a few years ago and it costs an arm and a leg, and then people think that they're too expensive. But you can buy a home and then, you know, 5% down, ignore the occurring house housing payment in your DTI for really under 2,000 bucks. And that for first-time sellers is so meaningful, and especially for listing agents, because that group, you know, maybe they bought their first home, they weren't married at the time, or they had one kid. And so it's like, what is what's their pain point? So their pain points is now they have kids, they're napping during showings, they don't want to deal with all that stuff. Maybe they have a couple dogs. So really the buy now, sell later is really popular. Um, and then of course the guidelines just broke that turning your current home into a rental got a little bit easier. And so maybe you should keep that house and turn it into a rental, explore that avenue. You can still tap into your equity to buy your next home, but I don't think that's talked enough to people. People are scared of that, you know, they're scared to be landlords, but I love that strategy. It it actually is how I bought my dream home today, is because I bought that ugly house as my first home. I still own that house. It cash flows, it's paid off. So I love talking about strategies like that. But it's still, I'd say number one, two, and three is first-time home buyers, boomers relocating to be closer to kids or grandkids, and then those first-time sellers. Robbie Chrisman: What are we seeing in terms of perception about the rate environment? Obviously, since the war in the Middle East began, rates have ticked up. The Trump administration's tried to float some proposals about buying longer-term bonds that hasn't really helped. We've been on this kind of inexorable increase here. Yeah. I would think that a lot of the discussion has changed from what's my rate to what's my monthly payment and what can I afford. Yeah. But in terms of people staying on the sidelines, people saying I might as well get now because they'll go like where are borrowers' heads when it comes to the rate environment. Denise Donahue: Well, I think we've done honestly a crappy job of educating that for the last four years, we've been averaging at six and a half or higher. That's a long time to be at six and a half percent or higher. Now, most recently, yeah, we're at a 13-month high. We just hit 7%. I don't love that. But we have been sitting in this space for longer. So it's different than when we were in 2022 or 2023. And it still felt new to be in the rates in the sixes, coming off of, you know, the last few years when rates were really low. But now we've been sitting in this space for longer. So how are we educating and informing people that the rate is the rate? If they come down, we can redo your rate. We all know that. You know, marry the home, date the rate. But alternatively, I would like to present, well, what if what's the savings account rates averaged in the last 10 years? I can tell you because I just made a post about it. Here's what the average savings account rate's doing. So now let's quantify the decision. If you're a first-time buyer and you've got $20,000 in your savings account and you've been waiting, what's the cost of waiting? Not just what's the rent, but if you put $20,000 in a savings account earning half a percent, that's $100 that you're making on that money. If you put $20,000 in real estate, even earning 2% appreciation at a 7% interest rate, how does that math math? And what does that look like for you in four to five years? I just want to quantify the math and the decision for people and not just say so hyper focused on one number because your credit card rate's 22% with feds increasing the federal funds rate, you know, all your rates are. It's just perspective, but I don't think we do a good enough job sharing the whole story, not just the micro story of mortgage rates. Robbie Chrisman: Let's shift from borrower sentiment to broker sentiment. Okay. You're obviously a top producing broker, and you have been for many years. What do top brokers want in this environment when it comes to to brokering outline, choosing who you want to work with, technology that's out there? What give us the the latest and greatest? Denise Donahue: Yeah, you know, I mean, obviously you want the lowest rate. Everybody wants, I don't know, a human in America that doesn't want whether you're a consumer or your broker, you want the lowest rate. But I also value service and technology because your rate is no good if the client experience is bad or it's stressful, you know, you can't deliver on what we need. So there is a balance between low rate and service and then servicing the loan afterwards. You know, who is who is actually servicing the loan? Is it Rocket who has an originating, you know, world, or is it UWM that that doesn't? So, in my opinion, I would rather have the best rate possible with the highest level of service and in control of who's servicing my loan, especially in the market we're in right now. Robbie Chrisman: We're going to set aside your humility for a second here. I want to talk about what makes you great. You're in the top 1% of brokers consistently. What do you feel like you do that sets you apart from the competition? Denise Donahue: You know, I I'm obsessed. I go by the mortgage nerd not because it's some catchy tagline. You know, I grew up and my dad lost the house. And so he lived in the house for 26 years. I came home from high school, and all of our belongings were on the front yard. I'm talking like mattress, lamps, picture frames. And at that time, I had no idea that the bank could take your house away. Like I thought your house was your house. That's where I lived my entire life. And so that feeling of being broke and scared and homeless and angry at my dad of how could you do this to us? To holy crap, where are we going to live? It, I mean, it it gives me a chip on my shoulder today to never be in that position. I never want my family to be in that position. But it also gives me the resiliency that when you've been in those positions, not knowing, you know, because up until we lost the house, it was like you didn't have money for food. We didn't have money to keep the the AC on. You you learn grit and you learn resilience at an early age. And that's really powerful. I think a lot of parents today try to shield our kids from it. But when you're a loan officer and you've been in this market for four years, if you're still in this business, man, you are you are grinding. You've been in the grind, you've you're putting in the work. So you've got to be good. I think what separates me is nothing fancy. It's just I can consistently do the stuff that nobody else wants to do every single day because I'm obsessed with getting micro improvement every day. I'm more afraid of staying who I was yesterday than the fear of failure or the fear of success. I just don't want to be the same person I was today. So I'm learning, I'm studying, but I know what it takes to win in this market. And most won't do what it's will what they're what it takes to win in this market. They get shiny balled into the fun things that they like to do. They won't do the work that it takes today. Robbie Chrisman: What's it take? Denise Donahue: Having enough realtor conversations or past client conversations, if you're not prospecting for an hour a day, I don't care what you do, I'm all over social media. Go like my I'm all over social media, I'm all over marketing, I'm learning AI tech, I'm doing all the things. But if you're not spending an hour a day minimum prospecting, that's 4% of your day. You're not your results aren't going to be where you want them to be. And going into the fall, you're gonna have to double down on those efforts, but it's boring. We don't know who to call because you don't have the right systems in place to tell you who to call. You don't know what to say, or your fear of call reluctance, or your fear of knowing everything that they're gonna ask you and not being prepared. All the all that is just forms of avoidance. You're avoiding the work that you need to do by staying busy and busy work that you don't need to do, your LOE can do it, but you do it because you're avoiding getting on the phone and making the calls or open house crashing or at the end of the day. If you're not meeting with enough agents, you're not going to get, you're not gonna talk to enough clients, and you got to talk to enough clients to get the credit pool, to get the pre-approval, to get the contract, to get the funding. But you ask, if you surveyed right now and you asked every anybody that's listening to this right now, if I was to look at your calendar in the last 30 days, and in 30 days, did you spend at least one hour consistently prospecting, intentionally prospecting, having at least 10 conversations a day? Nine out of 10 would tell you no. But then they'll tell you that it's the market and that's why the results suck today. Is it the market? Are you putting forth the effort that it it requires? Because it requires what it requires. I love you enough to tell you you're not doing the work. Don't blame the market, don't blame the rates because I'm closing 30 loans a month. So you could do it. Robbie Chrisman: I love that this business is about who's willing to get up and grind and who's willing to put in the work and the effort, and it's going to yield results. I'm a competitive person. I like waking up early and getting right into work and hopefully creating the best media platform in the mortgage industry. So you brought up a lot there. AI, tech, social media, you always evolving. What does the broker of the future look like to you? What are you working towards? What's kind of your guiding light? Denise Donahue: Learning how to leverage technology to be the most humanized brand possible in a real estate world that I believe is still very much humanized, I think those are the companies that are gonna win. I think if you grow and scale too much where bots take over, and for example, the minute your client finds out that they're texting you, but it's not you and it's a bot, you've lost trust with that client. And then any future communication to that client, they're gonna question whether or not it's you or a bot. And if I'm not saying don't do it, there's just an art to doing it, because if you don't do it right, you're at the risk of losing that client or becoming commoditized with all the other bots and all the other companies. And if they're looking for the lowest rate or they're gonna find it and it's not gonna be you. There's always someone that's gonna undercut you and do the job for cheaper. So I think being super intentional and smart about leveraging our tech to still be a humanized brand is critical for the future. Robbie Chrisman: How are you incorporating AI into your everyday practice? From my perspective, I view it as a wave, and I'm trying to ride the wave as best I can versus let it pass me by. So how are you incorporating into what you do? Denise Donahue: Yeah, there's there's so many different ways from an infrastructure standpoint. We have done some really cool things with being able to have AI go into our CRM, and every day we have a theme day, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. And rather your CRM just be, as an example, a digital phone book of okay, you've got all these names and all these numbers, but it's not really like giving you, but who do I need to call now? Like, and why now? Well, this is your hot pre-approval. They were on these websites looking at these homes. So your Tuesdays are for your hot pre-approve list. This is who you should call and why. Like, how are we connecting what's in our CRM or post-close to show up more meaningful and intentional? And then the efficiency rate and the success rate for the originator goes through the roof because now you're not just throwing a dart at your phone book trying to figure out who to call. It's more intentional. And so when they start to see that micro success, obviously that helps because you have these little micro wins, and then it it's that positive reinforcement to keep doing the mundane thing that you don't want to do, but now you're willing to do it because you're seeing success. And then other avenues, we built out dashboards where the condition, the underwriting conditions comes into one platform, and you can the processor can click a button. There's a template, and it all the conditions go out to the client. It's in the exact way that we want it to go out. It's easy to track if they go out of town. Another processor can so we've just built some really cool infrastructure with AI ourselves. We didn't buy it from a program or it's free, you know, whatever the monthly subscription is. So, really cool things from an infrastructure standpoint, efficiency standpoint, but also from an originator's originator standpoint of knowing who to call, when to call, when someone's getting the itch to sell. That should be the person you call. We already know that they're getting the itch to sell, so call them and then update your agent. So those are the things I'm really excited about because it's it's allowing us to be more intentional. Robbie Chrisman: I'd be remiss if I didn't bring up social media on this call. I looked at your Instagram, 40,000 followers. It's obviously a very notable number. I was gonna say what works well for you, but I almost think people like but better question is how can people find their own voice and their own niche on social media to develop a following? And any tips that you've you've kind of worked out over the years in terms of frequency you're building relationships that way? Denise Donahue: I started years ago, like in 2012, before it was cool to post about business things on social. So I do I do have a head start on most people. If you're just starting today versus 15 years ago, you know, it's like building credit. The longer you've been in the game, the easier it is. But I will tell you, you really gotta in 2026, you really gotta check the motive of why you're posting on social. And I always say audience first. So what I mean by that is the algorithms are so different. Gary V will tell you it's no longer social media, it's interest media. So if you change your framework of social media is an act of service, that's why I show up on social, that's why I post my reels, that's why I give a Monday market update, it's an act of service. It's so that if somebody is interested in the market today and they see my stuff, they'll learn something. Maybe I hope that they call me, they might not, but it's not from a standpoint of rate of return, how many likes, how many views. It's not really what the game is anymore. And so if your motive is purely to show up and teach, train, educate, and you get business out of it, great, but it's a long haul. It's it's the long game. It's tough to measure the rate of return on it. What I will tell you is invaluable is if you've got a real estate agent and another agent tells an agent about you, and they're like, oh my gosh, you gotta call Denise. She's great. It's very likely that that agent is gonna look you up on social just like you did me. And it's this credibility thermometer of like, is she legit? Now you could go out and pay for a bunch of followers, sure, but they're still gonna go through your feed, and now they're gonna make a decision. Do I know like and trust her from a digital standpoint? Do I feel like she's legit? That is she real? Is she too polished or perfect? Is she blonde and dumb? I have to overcome being blonde and dumb. I just do. So does your feed match how you show up in person? And can they feel like they know I can trust you? That then all of a sudden that you just like, you know what? I'm gonna call her or I'm gonna send her a message and ask her if she wants to chat. So, what's your motive for being on there? Is your framework a this is a show up as an act of service, or are you just trying to get? If it's just to get, I think your audience can feel that, but you got to be posting something so that people know you're credible and that you're in business because that's the world we live in today. Robbie Chrisman: Well, I know you're blonde, but I don't think you're dumb. Maybe that's people's perception when they first see you. People kind of suck. Did you, and this will be where we close, did you come up with the mortgage nerd name to counteract that dumb blonde thing, or do you fancy yourself as a true nerd when it comes to the industry or in life? Denise Donahue: I mean, I really am a true nerd, but where it came from was people couldn't spell Denise, they couldn't spell Donahue, and they could barely spell mortgage. And so when I was meeting with clients, I was like, just put my name in your number as the nerd because I really I've always been a finance nerd because of my upbringing. I got obsessed with learning about finance and money and strategy. And I've never looked at myself as a loan officer that just issues a pre-approval. When you come to me unknowingly, you're gonna get an entire financial strategy because I study compound effect of money, retirement, that kind of stuff. So I go by the nerd because I do actually study money. And every day I'm studying something about this business. To me, that's a nerd, but it started organically because I'm like, listen, and I have an identical twin sister, and her name's Deborah, and she's in the mortgage business, she does social media. So it throws people off of they're like, wait, is that the nerd or the bird? Because her last name is Bird. And so it's I'm like, just call me, call me what you call me. You're gonna call me the wrong name because you might think I'm my sister. I don't care, but just call me the nerd when you think anything finance, give the nerd a call. Robbie Chrisman: I know Deborah Bird. She's been on our mortgages with millennials show before. Holy smokes, thanks for making that connection. Wow. Denise Donahue: People always are like, I feel like I know you or I've met you. She has short hair, but yeah, uh, you know, she's in, she she does social media marketing for mortgage people. So if I go speak at a conference, they're like, I don't get it. I that's not Deborah, but that looks like Deborah because she's my identical twin. Robbie Chrisman: Wow. There you go. Denise, it was an absolute pleasure speaking with you. I appreciate you making the time, and uh hopefully we'll have you back on soon. Denise Donahue: Thank you. Sounds good. Thank you so much. Have a good one. Robbie Chrisman: August data pointed to a notably resilient U.S. consumer with retail sales rising 1.2% month over month to a five-month high versus 0.9% expected. Sales, excluding autos, jumped 1.4% versus 0.5% expected, while core sales, excluding autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services, also increased 1.4%, showing continued strength in goods demand even after stripping out fuel. At the same time, import prices accelerated 0.7%, and export prices rose 0.6%, suggesting renewed price pressures and trade flows. The softer NAHB housing market index at 32 signaled a continued weakness in housing sentiment, and the stronger than expected 0.8% rise in business inventories pointed to a solid accumulation that could support near-term GDP, but also potentially weigh on future production if demand moderates. Today's economic calendar kicked off with housing starts for August, which came in at 1.275 million versus expectations of 1.32 million. Building permits came in at 1.394 million versus 1.41 million. Projections pretty close. Weekly initial claims came in at 196,000 with continuing claims in at 1.73 million. Later today brings the September Philadelphia Fed survey and August pending home sales. We began Thursday with agency MBS prices better than Wednesday's close by an eighth to a quarter, the two-year yielding 4.70, and the 10-year yielding 4.96 after closing yesterday at 5.01%. Let's wrap up with a joke and some housekeeping. A husband and wife were driving through Louisiana. As they approached Nachito Chase, they started arguing about the pronunciation of the town. They argued back and forth. Then they stopped for lunch. At the counter, the husband asked the blonde waitress, Before we order, could you please settle an argument for us? Would you please pronounce where we are very slowly? She leaned over the counter and said Burger King. Thanks again to First Close for sponsoring this week's podcast. First Close provides fintech solutions to HELOC and mortgage lenders nationwide, and their home equity lending platform accelerates the home equity lending process, reducing application to closing times from 45 days to less than 10.