Yes, the college game was amazing Saturday night here in Austin, but there’s also IMN’s HELOCs & Second Liens event. The markets know that it is a hot topic. Do “the markets” care about a $40 trillion U.S. deficit? Yes. Does any politician seem able to curb spending, or be elected to do it? Not really, and in fact over the weekend, House Speaker Johnson seems to have shifted other national priorities aside in favor of President Trump’s proposal to pay every adult $5,000 if the GOP proves victorious in November, at a cost of $1 trillion. “Rob, I’ve heard from politicians that the U.S. consumer is in great shape. Given my borrowers come from this pool, have you seen any credit card stats lately?” Yes: the Federal Reserve calculates that revolving debt is at an all-time high which can have a positive impact on lenders offering certain products. (More on debt and equity below.) For something else that impacts lenders, this Thursday at 1PM ET is Chrisman Demo Day: watch, for no charge, a loan move through the mortgage lifecycle… verification, POS, LOS, U/W & decisioning, secondary, the customer experience, and recapture offerings. Featuring live demos from Truework, MortgageFlex, nCino, Gateless, Agile Trading Technologies, TrustEngine, FirstClose, and Milo… Eight companies, 10 minutes each, one connected pipeline, free for viewers. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are sponsored by FirstClose, which provides fintech solutions to HELOC and mortgage lenders nationwide. Their home equity lending platform accelerates the home equity lending process, reducing application-to-closing times from 45 days to less than ten. Today’s has an interview with mLoop’s Ellen Duncan on how data and AI can modernize LO–lender matching and what lenders must do to attract top producers.)
Broker and lender products, software, and services
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“MOZAIQ is the leader in Agentic Mortgage AI, automating end-to-end loan fulfillment for enterprise mortgage lenders with the Loan Assist platform: intelligent agents that autonomously complete the work and escalate to a processor or underwriter at lender-defined exception thresholds. Founded in 2019 and headquartered in Tucson, Arizona, MOZAIQ blends deep mortgage industry experience with production-grade AI, covering the full lifecycle from loan setup through investor loan delivery on one platform: one data layer, one orchestration engine, one integration with the LOS, one partner. Our customers’ success is our success: The Loan Store scaled monthly originations from $10 million to more than $2 billion in roughly 24 months and is now a top five U.S. wholesale lender, cutting cost per loan by 40 percent and appraisal review time by 80 percent. Meet us at the National Mortgage News’ Digital Mortgage conference at Encore at Wynn Las Vegas this week… Our case study session, The TLS Growth Story, runs Wednesday, September 16, at 9:45 a.m. Or contact us directly to see Loan Assist in action.”
With UAD 3.6 on the horizon, the real estate valuation is evolving. If your AMC hasn’t enhanced its offerings to leverage modern tools like AI-powered machine learning and optical character recognition, you’re missing out on distinct advantages to streamline the appraisal process. Your AMC shouldn’t be playing catch-up but rather leading the shift to UAD 3.6. With 45 years of experience under our belt, PCV Murcor is already there and built for what’s next! Experience innovation-powered precision and time-tested excellence by visiting here.
What if you could lower cost per loan and increase throughput without rebuilding your technology stack? JazzX AI sits above your existing LOS, CRM, document systems, pricing engines, and verification providers as a governed System of Intelligence, connecting people, policies, systems, and decisions across the mortgage lifecycle. The result is proven AI that reasons, learns, and adapts to your business while you stay in control, helping lenders save $1,500+ per loan, reduce defects by 80 percent, and increase processor output 8x. Book a demo to see JazzX in action.
Looking to close more this month? Take it all the way to the End Zone with LoanStream’s Touchdown September Specials with up to 25 BPS Price Improvement on Non-QM and PRIME. Includes 25 BPS on Non-QM including Closed End Seconds and DSCR 5-8 and for Prime, includes 12.5 BPS on Alt Agency, ARMS and DPA programs (excluding Jumbos and CalHFA). Specials are for loans locked 9/1 – 30th, 2026. Plus, reach self-employed borrowers with LoanStream’s NEW WEBINAR on Self-Employed Borrower 101: Mastering the Business Narrative! Take the guesswork out of working with these types of borrowers. Session breaks down documentation, P&Ls, CPA letters, expense factor ratios and how to craft a narrative that gives context to the numbers and helps create a stronger, more complete file! Space is limited so register now!
Affordability pressure doesn’t disappear when the loan closes. It comes back later as repurchase risk. Your borrowers are stretched, leaving less room for errors in the file. Truework, a Checkr company, verifies income, employment, and assets before you close, replacing error-prone processes with fast, automated reports pulled directly from sources. Lenders see up to 50 percent cost savings on verifications, with faster turn times and higher accuracy. Learn more.
AI is becoming infrastructure, affordability isn’t easing, and regulators aren’t handing out AI carve-outs. If your tech stack is still a patchwork of point solutions stitched together with workarounds, the gap is only going to widen from here. Blue Sage Solutions’ four-part Mortgage Modernization Playbook walks through what’s actually changing in lending right now — why this moment looks different from past cycles, why consolidated platforms are winning out over “best of breed” stacks, what’s genuinely regulated versus hype when it comes to AI and decisioning, and why cycle time (not headcount) will decide who captures volume. No predictions for prediction’s sake, just practical steps lenders can take today to get ahead of what’s coming. Read the Mortgage Modernization Playbook here.
Chrisman Demo Day is a free perk for all Chrisman Marketplace members. If you’re a technology or service provider and haven’t joined the Marketplace yet, reach out to Jake Perkins at info@chrismancommentary.com to learn more.
The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.
Sponsored webinars fast approaching
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Lenders are rethinking their subservicers. Why? New research shows borrower experience, not cost or compliance, is now the most important driver of subservicer selection. Join experts from the STRATMOR Group, Nations Lending, and LoanCare on October 1, for a candid discussion on “Customer Experience, Transparency, and the Tech Gap” and what lenders can’t ignore. Hear what lenders actually need from their subservicing partners, why they leave, and how top lenders are using new technologies and advanced analytics to improve cash flow and boost retention by building borrower relationships that last. If you’re thinking of making a change in subservicers, this webinar provides the practical insights grounded in market research and real-world experience you need to help you decide. Register now to save your seat.
Logan Finance is hosting a conversation today at 11AM PT, 2PM ET, with me on the non-QM mortgage market for brokers: A conversation with Rob Chrisman hosted by Paul Jones.
Now Next Later is Monday, September 14, at 10AM PT. On Now Next Later, Jeremy Potter and Eric Lapin are joined by Jennifer McGuinness-Lubbert of Pivot Financial having a timeless conversation on what broker-dealers, institutional investors, and servicers are watching across the mortgage market, how firms are evaluating credit risk, liquidity, profitability, and balance-sheet management, what investors and servicers are demanding from lenders today, and the biggest forces that could shape mortgage capital markets over the next 12 to 24 months.
So much equity out there: are you doing anything about it?
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Trillions of dollars of equity, trillions of dollars of debt. PRMG’s Kevin Peranio writes, “There are many consumers struggling right now for different reasons but most of them are not the target to become a home buyer. The U.S. consumer has repeatedly shown resilience, especially those employed and continuing to purchase houses. In fact, first time home buyers share inched up last report.”
“American homeowners hold more equity than at any point on record, and they are borrowing against it in growing numbers. Total owners’ equity in residential real estate reached $34.9 trillion in the first quarter of 2026.Mortgage borrowers hold $17.9 trillion of that, roughly $11 trillion of it tappable, an average of about $310,500 per borrower. Subordinate-lien originations grew 21 percent in one year, from $148.3 billion in 2024 to $179.3 billion in 2025. Demand is not the question.
The question is who meets it, and how. In 2022, banks and credit unions together originated 85 percent of subordinate-lien loans. By 2025 that combined share had fallen to 66 percent, while the nonbank share nearly quadrupled, from 8 percent to 29 percent.3 The growth is not evenly distributed either: between 2023 and 2025, HELOC originations grew roughly 140 percent at nonbanks against 20 percent at regional banks, 8 percent at credit unions, and 7 percent at large banks.4 This is competition from the capital markets, not a cyclical dip, and each year an institution waits, the operating gap it must close gets wider.” (Here’s the report.)
LOs as financial strategists
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For years, mortgage professionals created value by providing information that consumers could not easily access on their own. Today, that advantage has largely disappeared. Borrowers can compare rates online, research loan programs, watch educational videos, and generate answers from artificial intelligence in a matter of seconds.
Yet despite having more information than ever before, many prospective homebuyers remain paralyzed. They are not struggling because they lack data. They are struggling because they lack confidence in what that information means for their specific circumstances. The opportunity for loan officers is no longer to become the fastest source of answers. It is to become the most trusted guide through increasingly complex financial decisions. As technology continues to automate calculations, document collection, and operational tasks, the greatest human value will come from helping borrowers understand the tradeoffs behind every option rather than simply presenting the options themselves.
That shift requires a different mindset than the one that has traditionally defined mortgage sales. Trust is no longer built by delivering a quick preapproval or answering every question on the first call. It is built through thoughtful education, clear expectations, and conversations that help borrowers visualize the financial consequences of different decisions.
The best mortgage professionals will increasingly resemble financial strategists rather than transaction managers. Artificial intelligence will accelerate this evolution by handling much of the repetitive work that consumes lenders today, creating more time for meaningful consultation and long-term planning. The professionals who thrive will not be those competing to provide more information than everyone else. They will be the ones who consistently help borrowers make better decisions with the information they already have. In an era where knowledge is abundant, judgment becomes the real competitive advantage.
Capital markets: Fed conjecture will reach a peak this week
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Last week was lousy, as rates sold off in every session, with the pressure accelerating into Friday as three forces converged: renewed oil-driven inflation that is rising faster than predicted (core services posted its strongest increase since January), fiscal concerns (the budget deficit reached $1.97 trillion through the first 11 months of the fiscal year) after the failed Treasury buyback and aggressive rhetoric from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and a market increasingly pricing a Fed hike not only this week as fait accompli but a second increase before the end of the year. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 20-basis points over the course of last week to 4.98 percent, while 2-years rose roughly 27-basis points to 4.64 percent, producing an 8-basis point bear-flattening to a 34-basis point spread. Elevated borrowing costs could eventually weigh on economic growth and equity valuations, challenging Treasuries’ traditional safe-haven appeal.
MBS absorbed the rate shock through a classic negative-feedback loop: five consecutive sessions of lower prices and wider spreads triggered heavier extension hedging and snowball selling. Current coupons lost roughly a point, lower-4s fell as much as 1.25 points, and the 30-year current coupon backed up 20-basis points to 6.00 percent, with the 5/10-year blend spread finally widening 3-basis points to +114 after weeks of compression. Volume surged to roughly $110 billion per day, a sign of conviction behind the move rather than passive drift. Thursday’s Class A session showed meaningful coupon dispersion, with 6s and 6.5s relatively resilient while 7s cheapened materially; specified-pool payups generally deteriorated, particularly low-balance conventional cohorts, although isolated gains in LTV95 and FN20 looked more technical than fundamental.
There’s only so much margin in a mortgage trade, so when revenue gets squeezed, execution matters even more. It’s imperative for capital markets staff to know (at the loan level) where they expect to make money, where they give it back, and what risk is still sitting in the pipeline across pricing, hedging, pooling, and delivery. I’m hearing from many folks that they don’t need another technology dashboard that tells them what happened but rather need to know why it happened and what they can do about it before the trade is over. As more production moves into specified pools, that visibility will become even more important.
Heading into this week, the market has shifted from debating whether inflation will fade to pricing a materially higher near-term policy rate: the market is clearly prepared for a hike at Wednesday’s Federal Open Market decision but will likely care more about what the new “dots” imply for the path beyond September. The escalation in the Middle East and oil above $100/barrel have complicated the Fed’s decision by introducing a fresh energy-driven inflation risk and the potential for broader pass-through into prices.
Expectations this week are for the FOMC to raise rates by 25-basis points, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent. Other highlights this week include retail sales, import/export prices, September’s NAHB Housing Market Index, Housing Starts and Building Permits, pending home sales, and leading indicators. With nothing of note on today’s economic calendar, we begin the week with Agency MBS prices little changed from Friday’s close, the 2-year yielding 4.64, and the 10-year yielding 4.97 after closing last week at 4.98 percent, up 20-basis points over the course of last week.
Nearly no one knows that today is Clayton Moore’s birthday. Trivia buffs know that Clayton Moore played the Lone Ranger in the 1950s. But you don’t have to be an expert in anything to be entertained by this tale told by Jay Thomas on David Letterman. (Yes, this is a repeat; skip the ad.)
Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. STRATMOR’s current blog is, “Those Monthly Payments Go Somewhere.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.
qoɹ & ǝᴉqqoɹ
(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2026 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)
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