Friday, July 10, 2026
7.10.26 Housing Statistics; Rate’s Ryan Ogata on Profit and Loss Models; Rates Versus Volatility
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Today’s episode includes a discussion on housing statistics from the beginning of summer. Plus, Robbie interviews Rate’s Ryan Ogata on why more and more originators/branch operators are choosing “profit and loss” models over traditional retail. And we close with a look at why rates aren’t great but a lack of volatility is welcomed.
This week’s podcasts are sponsored by FICO. As the industry's most predictive credit score, FICO Score 10T combines proven performance with deeper insight into borrower behavior to help support a stronger and more resilient housing finance system.
The Chrisman Commentary is your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.
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(0:02) Welcome to the Chrisman Commentary, Daily Mortgage News Podcast. I'm your host, Robbie Chrisman. (0:08) Topics on today's episode include some statistics from around the mortgage industry.
Rates aren't (0:15) great, but a lack of volatility is welcomed. In my interview with Rates, Ryan Ogata on (0:19) why more and more originators or branch operators are choosing profit and loss models over traditional (0:24) retail. Here, take a listen to a little preview.
(0:28) I want to ask you, when we look at just the lending landscape right now from a borrower (0:33) perspective, what are borrowers focused on? It seems like we've moved away from the rate (0:39) a little bit to what's my payment. There's a new Fed chair. I don't think that should (0:44) concern borrowers terribly when it comes to interest rates and some stuff in the Middle (0:47) East that there's a lot of uncertainty there.
But what do you look, is the borrower in mid-2026 (0:53) that wants to own a home, what's going on with them from your vantage point? (0:56) Oh, wow. I mean, look, every market's different. Every market.
I mean, look, I'm in San Francisco. (1:02) I'm in San Francisco, okay, in the general area as well. And you can see what's happening (1:06) with all the AI, IPOs.
(1:08) Gangbusters. (1:09) It's gangbuster, right? I don't think you can buy a single family home in San Francisco (1:12) for less than like $3 million at this point. I mean, it's out of control.
Millions of dollars (1:17) that we're asking. This is making headlines every single day. That is one particular part (1:23) of the housing market.
And then there's other places. So I don't think it's fair to kind (1:27) of talk about these things in complete generalities. All I would say is, and again, going back (1:32) into this P&L model, is that no company knows more about what a smaller market, what's going (1:42) on there more than the actual originator living in that market.
They are front lines and every (1:47) single marketplace is going to have a different dynamic that's going on. That's what I love (1:51) so much about this profit-loss model, because it's basically, hey, look, here's the rate (1:57) platform. You do what you want to do for your market because you know your book of business (2:03) better than we do.
And if you're seeing that our pricing affords you the ability to make (2:09) it a little bit more on a government loan, maybe make a little bit less on a jumbo loan, (2:14) that is for you to decide where those margins need to be set in order for you to be competitive (2:19) in your respective market. I frankly cannot look at the entire country and be as dynamic (2:27) as I would need to be in order to take advantage of every single little pocket of opportunity (2:33) that exists across the entire map. Impossible to do.
Companies battle at it. This is where (2:39) this model really kind of comes into play, is that I'm going to leave that decision-making (2:43) to the branch operator who knows that best in their marketplace. And that's everything (2:48) from the margin side of things, that's the fees that you charge a customer for processing, (2:54) all that stuff.
I would be arrogant to think that I know that better than you do if, frankly, (3:01) I haven't even been to a city or the state that you are doing business in. I think I (3:06) consider myself somewhat well-traveled, but again, I have not been to every single market (3:09) that we serve, and I don't know that I have a good market that we serve. (3:16) In a market where every loan counts, FICO Score 10T lets lenders say yes to more borrowers (3:21) without added risk.
As the industry's most predictive credit score, FICO Score 10T combines (3:26) proven performance with deeper insight into borrower behavior to help support a stronger (3:30) and more resilient housing finance system. FICO has set the standard for decades, and (3:35) I'm grateful for their support of today's podcast and the conversations that help bring (3:40) mortgage professionals together. (3:44) I was asked recently where I got this statistic that 30% of repeat buyers paid cash and did (3:50) not finance their home.
It's from the most recent Home Buyers and Sellers Report from (3:55) NAR, and if you'd like to see stats based on age, the link to that, as well as some other (3:59) really neat things, are at chrismancommentary.com. Lenders and vendors love data, and according (4:05) to Quirino's Proprietary Application Index, June 2026 funded mortgage volume increased (4:10) 6% year-over-year and increased 8% month-over-month. The average 30-year conforming retail funded (4:17) rate in June 2026 was 6.35, 10 basis points higher than May 2026 and 44 basis points (4:23) lower than the same month last year. Certainly, the ability to look at granular statistics (4:30) has increased, but are you managing to or managing through? Investors continue to manage, (4:38) or at the very least monitor, renewed Middle East tensions.
The focus remains on whether (4:43) inflation and labor market data will validate expectations that the Federal Reserve can (4:47) remain on hold, particularly as oil prices this week have stayed below levels that would (4:51) signal a meaningful inflation shock. We learned on Wednesday that the June FOMC minutes reaffirmed (4:57) that persistent inflation from energy, tariffs, or AI-driven demand could warrant additional (5:02) tightening if economic conditions remain resilient. But with Treasury action demand (5:07) proving strong and energy markets relatively contained, the recent rise in yields appears (5:12) driven more by hawkish policy expectations than by escalating geopolitical risks.
(5:18) The Treasury's $25 billion 30-year bond auction yesterday capped off a good (5:23) finish to this week's trifecta of solid auctions, with solid investor demand reinforcing that the (5:29) market continues to absorb increased Treasury issuance despite elevated yields, geopolitical (5:34) uncertainty, and persistent inflation concerns. With long-term Treasury yields having climbed back (5:40) above 5% after recent selling pressure, the higher-yield environment attracted buyers and (5:45) helped stabilize the long end of the curve, easing concerns that weak auction demand would (5:50) push rates materially higher and shifting investors' focus toward next week's CPI report (5:55) and the evolving outlook for Federal Reserve policy. June-June-May two 30-year prepayment (6:01) speeds declined 7% with slower activity concentrated in higher-coupon loans while (6:07) older, lower-coupon vintages continued to accelerate modestly.
VA loans continued to (6:12) prepay faster than FHA loans, particularly in higher coupons due to the VA's streamlined (6:17) refinance program, with servicer performance remaining a key driver of pool behavior. (6:22) Planet Home Lending led the fastest VA prepayment rankings, RocketQuickend dominated the FHA rankings, (6:27) and Village Capital consistently posted the fastest speeds among newer loans. (6:32) Reinforcing that servicer characteristics remained one of the strongest (6:35) predictors of prepayment performance.
(6:40) For today's interview, I wanted to welcome back to the show Rates Ryan Ogata to talk about why (6:44) more and more originators and branch operators are choosing profit and loss models over traditional (6:48) retail. He's Executive Vice President of Reverse Mortgage Lending across all rate companies and (6:56) he's also served in the capacity of regional and divisional sales leader. (7:01) Let's focus on profit and loss models today.
It's come in vogue in a lot of ways because there are (7:13) certainly benefits. People running their own businesses are probably a little more inclined to (7:18) be striving for something greater, maybe call it capitalism versus socialism. I won't go quite (7:24) that far, but let's set the groundwork a little bit for people when we talk about just what we (7:35) mean when we say profit and loss models and high level why the industry is trending that way.
(7:40) Well, look, they've been around for a while. I mean, again, I look back into my own personal (7:46) career as the originator. Coming out of the whole implosion in 2008, I think I discovered (7:52) the profit and loss model in 2010.
We refer to them as net branches back in the day. (8:00) And they were probably around for, again, I don't know the exact timeline, but they've been around (8:05) for a while and they've existed in various forms. I think compliance is a moving target in a lot of (8:13) ways and as rules, regulations and interpretations of regulations come out, companies have to start (8:22) to pivot and evolve what profit and loss model looks like.
Today, it seems to be a very attractive (8:33) option for established branch operators, but even let's just call it more seasoned individual (8:42) producers because it really just affords them a lot more flexibility than a traditional retail (8:51) model would allow. So if I take big retail like the B of A's, the Wells Fargo's, the world, (8:59) I put them on one end of the spectrum and I take the broker model, put it on the other (9:04) end of the spectrum, I would say this fits in a happy spot somewhere between the two. (9:13) And I don't necessarily think, don't necessarily think too much about the big retail being one (9:18) end of it.
Just really think more about, hey, I want to do sales. I want to focus on (9:24) building a business. This is that next level up above just doing sales and controlling your own (9:31) branch and being able to adjust the margins as you see fit, control your costs as you see fit, (9:38) take additional revenues and invest on how you see fit.
You run the show. It's your branch (9:44) about that kind of thing. And that's why I think it appeals so much to that entrepreneur.
Again, (9:49) this is a very entrepreneurial business. The mortgage space, it's this great example of (9:55) you can do something different than your competition. And if it yields a positive (10:00) result for you kind of thing, you can make all these great changes that the market is so big, (10:05) there's a space for everybody to attack it in like a different way.
So I think it really just (10:09) fits in with maybe the psychology of a law officer. (10:13) I'm trying to find the middle ground here because when I talk with top originators, (10:17) they're very happy that a lot of automation and technology out there has freed them up (10:22) to focus more on relationships or advice or peer building their book of business. (10:30) Now going one step further, can some of this distract from it where it's like, (10:33) hey, I'm good at origin.
I don't want to have to deal with worrying about (10:36) the stuff where you feel like for the real top dogs, for lack of a better term, that it's normally (10:41) something that they all want to do. Here's the thing. And I like to say it like this, (10:48) whether you know it or not, you're on a P&L.
Let's just be fully honest about what that is. (10:55) And then the second part I want to kind of just highlight is this is the mortgage business. It's (11:00) not like rocket science.
Okay. And I think that anybody who has years, some experience in the (11:08) mortgage space has a rough idea of margin revenue coming in fee revenue coming in and costs going (11:15) out. Right.
Let's just not overcomplicate what a P&L really is. I mean, so, you know, as much as (11:22) there may be a little bit more, I don't know if work is the right way to characterize it, (11:28) but just focus on kind of how your business is performing, what your brands financials look like. (11:34) I don't necessarily see that as a detractor from the sales side of things, because at the end of (11:40) the day, you're already on a P&L, whether you know it or not, you know, that's just the harsh (11:45) reality of things.
And if you're a successful salesperson, the chances are that P&L is making (11:51) money. You know, so again, don't let it, you know, overwhelm you. Don't let it intimidate you.
(11:56) It's not frankly that much work. And it really just provides that P&L owner a lot more autonomy (12:03) and the ability to kind of make kind of decisions on their terms and business on their terms. (12:09) I believe the language you used to me was rate is growing fast with this (12:16) offering.
And I'm hoping you can speak a little bit to rate and why you see it as spurring (12:24) all of this growth for you all. (12:27) You know, so I would say, look, we are arguably the best, not one of the best. (12:39) If I look at my kind of history here, I've been with the company for eight plus years, (12:44) and I think we've done a really, really good job growing the company, accruing with what I think (12:50) is tangibly a superior platform.
And that manifests itself, you know, in different ways. (12:57) But let's just talk about the sales side of things, right? If I'm engaging with a producer (13:02) that maybe they've hit the ceiling, maybe they feel sort of stuck, then I'm able to show them (13:07) all of the tangibles we offer as an organization from the technology, the marketing, just our (13:15) manufacturing of the loan, the product that we offer, right? Those are things that the salesperson (13:21) will hopefully see that there's some value there, choose to join us, and that will be (13:27) kind of a catalyst for them to really sort of take their business to the next level, right? (13:31) So we as a company, I think we've done an amazing job creating what is arguably like the best value (13:37) proposition in the market space. That still exists, but we're finding that the industry seems to be (13:44) shifting a little bit more towards this problem-loss model, which is kind of the opportunity (13:50) for us to add that additional offering of kind of how it is that you want to, let's just talk, (13:57) how it is that you want to control the economics of your business.
So I can still provide all the (14:03) great things that we offer the salesperson, all the things that historically have worked for us to (14:08) help an originator grow their business, but now we're able to do it with (14:13) problem-loss economics, and that's opening up a whole new offering, a whole new recruit that (14:20) historically we probably haven't been able to engage with very well. I think we've done a great (14:24) job as a company of finding top producers in any market, bringing them over and helping grow their (14:29) business. This is really more, hey, there is a branch, there is an existing thriving team that (14:37) is working.
Rather than focusing on individual players inside that branch, let's talk to the (14:43) branch manager, the operator, show them all the benefits of rate, show them how our P&L works, (14:50) right, the margin revenues coming in, the fee structure going in, the corporate costs going out, (14:56) and chances are we're going to have a superior value proposition for that entire team, (15:01) and rather than kind of focusing on the individual originator, it's more about (15:04) the group, the entire branch team making the switch and joining our organization. (15:10) You brought up recruiting there, and I do want to talk about recruiting a little bit. How would (15:13) you characterize the current landscape? This is always a topic of interest, (15:20) not with too much specificity here, but what are we seeing in terms of signing bonus (15:24) trends? What are we seeing in terms of what top talent is asking for from companies, (15:29) not monetarily, but in terms of techs, how can companies woo talent and also (15:34) build loyalty with the good talent they have? This is one of the things that I love most about (15:40) the profit and loss phase, is that at the end of the day, the pitch is very simplified.
It is, (15:51) let's look at your pricing, where it exists today, let's look at your corporate costs, (15:57) where they exist today. On the P&L, if I am able to show you a scenario where your pricing is (16:05) improved, your corporate costs of doing business are lesser than where you're at, meaning let's (16:13) just say, let's simplify it, same rates, more money, better rates, more money. It's money in, (16:19) money out.
It's kind of the most sort of fair, impartial way of comparing two platforms, (16:26) especially on a P&L. Are you seeing a financial economic benefit to pursuing this conversation (16:34) further? And that's a yes or no question. It is very simple for us to do a margin comparison and (16:41) a corporate cost structure comparison, right? You already know your rent, you already know (16:46) what your staffing expenses are, salaries for processors, what you're paying for bonuses.
(16:52) So all that stuff is going to be the same. I'm just going to show you a different rate (16:56) sheet, maybe more product than you're used to seeing. I'm going to show you our corporate (16:59) cost structure.
If we're able to pay you more profit, if our P&L is generating more, chances (17:05) are that that branch manager who is a business owner is going to want to engage further and see (17:11) all the other positive attributes that we as a company provide to help them kind of go out and (17:16) attack the market opportunity. Two-part answer though, because you did ask about kind of the (17:21) thing. I mean, look, that is a kind of reality of the world that we live in today.
I mean, (17:26) the mortgage industry has evolved to where some of these producers, they've got a large (17:33) amount of business. There's something of a disruption that is going to happen (17:38) changing platforms. As much as I think we do a great job of onboarding new originators and (17:44) helping them connect the dots at a new organization, there is going to be a disruption there.
(17:49) It is a little bit of work. Sometimes it's a lot of work, but depending on how much buying we're (17:54) talking about, thankfully we have the resources to make it happen, but there is going to be a (18:00) signing bonus, something that that originator is going to need in order to kind of make it worth (18:05) their while. Not to be too draconian here, but is there still space for the traditional retail (18:13) model in mortgage lending? Absolutely.
Absolutely. I mean, again, look, (18:17) this business, it's not a one size fits all kind of approach and there are originators out there (18:23) that it's not criticism. It's more, all I care about is doing sales.
I just want to plug in (18:30) to rate and I send loans. You guys take care of the rest and that's totally fine. At the end of the (18:36) day, there's nothing wrong with that.
We do a great job of supporting that type of originator. Again, (18:42) retail is the bulk of what we currently do. We've historically done a great job of it.
There's (18:49) nothing wrong with it. This is just another offering that we have for the person who's (18:54) interested in either A, converting from a traditional retail model and exploring what (19:00) a profit loss would look like or B, an existing branch operator that has a team that's already (19:06) operating on a profit loss, coming over and connecting in with us and using us in order to (19:13) facilitate their business. We have a guest submission question from Rob Chrisman.
He (19:20) wants to know what constitutes a successful day. How do you qualify success in this business? (19:27) In this business, for me personally, or I mean... We're not personally here on the podcast, (19:33) we're not personally on the podcast. Okay.
That's a good one. At the end of the day, (19:38) I'm a numbers guy. Success is when I can look at our market share, I can look at our... (19:45) Market share is the biggest one, right? Again, that's the equalizer.
You can say you recruited (19:51) all these people, but if you're not actually growing market share as a company, you're not (19:55) really doing your job. And the same thing goes for an originator. Rising tide, resell ships, (19:59) that's the same.
Great. But let's just say we are so fortunate to come into another refinance (20:05) boom or cycle. The business is going to increase for everyone, but if you're not outperforming (20:10) your peers, you're not really being successful, right? There's a pie of eligible transactions, (20:17) eligible business, eligible recruits.
Unless your slice is getting larger, (20:21) you're not really being successful. Frankly, you're kind of on borrowed time, in my opinion. (20:26) As long as we as a company are increasing our market share, I'm happy.
That's a successful day. (20:33) I like that. I like competition.
I like competitive people. And I like talking to you. So this was a (20:39) good time, man.
Hopefully we'll do it again soon. Thank you. Yeah.
Thank you so much. I (20:43) really appreciate it. Anytime.
We learned yesterday that June existing home sales fell 2.4% from the (20:51) month prior as high home prices and elevated mortgage rates continued to weigh on demand (20:55) despite improving affordability driven by wage growth, outpacing home price appreciation. (21:00) With no economic data on today's calendar, we begin Friday with agency MBS prices, (21:05) little change from Thursday's close, the two-year yielding 4.18 and the 10-year (21:10) yielding 4.55 after closing yesterday at 4.54%. Let's wrap up with a joke and some housekeeping. (21:19) A mortgage banker and a realtor get into a car accident and it's a bad one.
(21:23) Both cars are totally demolished, but amazingly, neither of the professionals is hurt. (21:28) After they crawl out of their cars, the mortgage banker sees the realtor's NAR sticker and says, (21:33) so you're a realtor. I'm a mortgage banker.
Just look at our cars. There's nothing left, (21:37) but we're unhurt. This must be a sign from God.
God must have meant that we should meet and be (21:43) friends and live together in peace the rest of our days. The realtor replies, I agree with you (21:48) completely. This must be a sign from above.
Mortgage banker continues. And look at this, (21:53) here's another miracle. My car is completely demolished, but this bottle of Chardonnay (21:57) didn't break.
Surely some power above wants us to drink this wine and celebrate our good fortune. (22:02) Then he hands the bottle to the realtor. The realtor agrees, takes a few big sips and hands (22:06) the bottle back to the mortgage banker.
The mortgage banker takes the bottle, immediately (22:10) puts the cap on and hands it back to the realtor. The realtor says, are you having any? To which the (22:15) mortgage banker replies, no, I think I'll wait for the police. (22:21) Thanks again for FICO for sponsoring this week's podcasts.
As the industry's most predictive credit (22:26) score, FICO score 10T combines proven performance with deeper insight into borrower behavior (22:31) to help support a stronger and more resilient housing finance system.